Global online retail sales to reach $6.8t in 2028: Forrester

About 76% of global retail sales will still occur offline in 2028, amounting to $21.9t. 

The global online retail sales is projected to hit $6.8t in 2028, up from $4.4t in 2023, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%, according to Forrester Research.

Despite this growth, the report highlighted that 76% of global retail sales will still occur offline in 2028, amounting to $21.9t. 

It also noted the importance of retailers investing in omnichannel strategies to deliver a seamless shopping experience across online and offline channels.

Additionally, it cited varying levels of e-commerce maturity across regions. Advanced economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and South Korea lead the pack due to their higher internet penetration rates and digital literacy levels. However, emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Latin America are rapidly catching up, driven by increased smartphone adoption and mobile commerce.

In Asia Pacific, top countries, including China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia are expected to see online retail sales grow from $2.2t in 2023 to $3.2t in 2028. China leads this surge, with both China and South Korea expected to exceed 40% online retail penetration by 2028.

In Southeast Asia's six key nations, including Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, online retail sales hit $93b in 2023 and are forecasted to reach $193 in 2028, representing 17.4% of total retail sales. Indonesia leads in online retail penetration, followed by Malaysia and Singapore. Additionally, the Philippines and Vietnam are anticipated to grow over 20% annually over the next five years, outpacing other regional countries.

“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. 

“However, e-commerce maturity and growth opportunities vary vastly by region. Retailers and brands must therefore have a thorough understanding of the key drivers of retail and e-commerce growth in their priority markets and tailor their strategies appropriately, to succeed.”